American Woodmark Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.3% to US$89.19 in the past week. Revenues of US$452m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.79, missing estimates by 8.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for American Woodmark

Following last week's earnings report, American Woodmark's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.77b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 16% to US$5.90 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.53 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$114, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$118 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - American Woodmark is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Woodmark going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether American Woodmark's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.