OTCPK:AIBG.Y

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to retail, business, and corporate customers.

Rewards

PE ratio (11.7x) is below the US market (18.6x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 3.62% per year

Risk Analysis

Shares are highly illiquid

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results



Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has AIB Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AIBG.Y's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-1.0%

AIBG.Y

1.4%

US Banks

0.8%

US Market


1 Year Return

-9.8%

AIBG.Y

27.0%

US Banks

22.0%

US Market

Return vs Industry: AIBG.Y underperformed the US Banks industry which returned 27% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AIBG.Y underperformed the US Market which returned 22% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AIBG.YIndustryMarket
7 Day-1.0%1.4%0.8%
30 Day8.8%3.4%1.7%
90 Day37.2%10.2%5.2%
1 Year-7.2%-9.8%30.7%27.0%24.7%22.0%
3 Yearn/a34.0%24.5%46.9%37.3%
5 Yearn/a75.6%56.0%65.5%47.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is AIB Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is AIB Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

11.69x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AIBG.Y ($7.26) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($5.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIBG.Y is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AIBG.Y is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.7x) compared to the Banks industry average (12.9x).

PE vs Market: AIBG.Y is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.7x) compared to the US market (18.6x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AIBG.Y is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AIBG.Y is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.6x) compared to the US Banks industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is AIB Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 13 analysts?

3.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AIBG.Y's forecast earnings growth (3.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: AIBG.Y's earnings (3.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AIBG.Y's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AIBG.Y's revenue (0.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AIBG.Y's revenue (0.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AIBG.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.7%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has AIB Group performed over the past 5 years?

11.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AIBG.Y has a large one-off loss of €323.0M impacting its June 30 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: AIBG.Y's current net profit margins (27.1%) are lower than last year (33.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AIBG.Y has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 11.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: AIBG.Y's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AIBG.Y had negative earnings growth (-28.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Banks industry average (27.1%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AIBG.Y's Return on Equity (5.7%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is AIB Group's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: AIBG.Y has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: AIBG.Y's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.2x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: AIBG.Y's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: AIBG.Y has a low allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: AIBG.Y's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: AIBG.Y has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: AIBG.Y's loans are broadly funded by customer deposits.

Level of Bad Loans: AIBG.Y has a high level of bad loans (7.44%)


Next Steps

Dividend

What is AIB Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.15%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.2%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.7%forecastin3Years6.4%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: AIBG.Y's dividend (5.15%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.43%).

High Dividend: AIBG.Y's dividend (5.15%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.71%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, AIBG.Y has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AIBG.Y's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (60.2%), AIBG.Y's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: AIBG.Y's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (82.8% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of AIB Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

2.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Colin Hunt (49yo)

0.8yrs

Tenure

0

Dr. Colin Hunt, BComm, BComm, MEconSc, Ph.D. has been CEO and Executive Director of AIB Group Plc an Allied Irish Banks PLC since March 8, 2019. He was Managing Director of Corporate, Institutional & Busin ...


Management Age and Tenure

2.9yrs

Average Tenure

49.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: AIBG.Y's management team is considered experienced (2.9 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

0.8yrs

Average Tenure

55.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: AIBG.Y's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Colin Hunt (49yo)

    CEO & Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Dave Keenan

    Deputy Chief People Officer

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
  • Helen Dooley (50yo)

    Group General Counsel

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
  • Deirdre Hannigan (59yo)

    Chief Risk Officer

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
  • Jim O'Keeffe (51yo)

    Proposed Managing Director of Retail Banking

    • Tenure: 8.5yrs
  • Donal Galvin (46yo)

    Chief Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Tomás O’Midheach (49yo)

    COO, Deputy CEO & Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • David McLaughlin

    Head of Private Banking Unit

    • Tenure: 3.1yrs
  • Niamh Hore

    Head of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Paddy McDonnell

    Head of Media Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Richard Pym (70yo)

    Non-Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 5yrs
    • Compensation: €365.00k
  • Colin Hunt (49yo)

    CEO & Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Brendan McDonagh (60yo)

    Deputy Chairman of the Board

    • Tenure: 0.2yrs
    • Compensation: €94.00k
  • Tom Foley (65yo)

    Senior Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.2yrs
    • Compensation: €122.00k
  • Helen Normoyle (51yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 4yrs
    • Compensation: €75.00k
  • Elaine MacLean (57yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
  • Carolan Lennon (52yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 3.2yrs
    • Compensation: €80.00k
  • Tomás O’Midheach (49yo)

    COO, Deputy CEO & Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Sandy Pritchard (61yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Ann O'Brien (54yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs

Company Information

AIB Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: AIB Group plc
  • Ticker: AIBG.Y
  • Exchange: OTCPK
  • Founded: 1825
  • Industry: Diversified Banks
  • Sector: Banks
  • Market Cap: €8.957b
  • Listing Market Cap: €9.964b
  • Shares outstanding: 2.71b
  • Website: https://group.aib.ie

Number of Employees


Location

  • AIB Group plc
  • Bankcentre
  • PO Box 452
  • Dublin
  • Co. Dublin
  • 4
  • Ireland

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
AIBGISE (Irish Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesIEEURDec 2017
AIBGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBEURDec 2017
A5GDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 2017
AIBGIBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBEURDec 2017
AIBR.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 2017
AIBG.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)UNSPONSORD ADRUSUSDMar 2018

Biography

AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to retail, business, and corporate customers. It operates through Retail & Commercial Banking; Wholesale, Institutional & Corporate Bankin ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/16 00:42
End of Day Share Price2019/12/12 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.