Origin Bancorp, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:OBK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.2% to US$31.21 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$91m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 15%, coming in at US$0.73 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Origin Bancorp

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Origin Bancorp's four analysts is for revenues of US$383.0m in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.4% to US$2.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$388.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.68 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$37.20, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Origin Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$41.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Origin Bancorp's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Origin Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Origin Bancorp is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Origin Bancorp. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Origin Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Origin Bancorp going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Origin Bancorp you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.