Earnings Beat: Axos Financial, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

As you might know, Axos Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AX) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Axos Financial beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$295m, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 12%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Axos Financial

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Axos Financial are now predicting revenues of US$1.22b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 4.0% to US$7.29 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.74 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$70.00, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Axos Financial analyst has a price target of US$79.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$60.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Axos Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Axos Financial's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Axos Financial's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Axos Financial following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Axos Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Axos Financial (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.