Results: TrustCo Bank Corp NY Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in TrustCo Bank Corp NY (NASDAQ:TRST) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.2% to close at US$27.06 following the release of its quarterly results. TrustCo Bank Corp NY missed revenue estimates by 4.0%, coming in atUS$41m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.64 beat expectations, coming in 6.7% ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for TrustCo Bank Corp NY

Taking into account the latest results, the solitary analyst covering TrustCo Bank Corp NY provided consensus estimates of US$168.6m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 5.5% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 15% to US$2.38 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$177.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.54 in 2024. The analyst are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The consensus price target fell 10% to US$26.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that TrustCo Bank Corp NY's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TrustCo Bank Corp NY. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on TrustCo Bank Corp NY. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for TrustCo Bank Corp NY going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the TrustCo Bank Corp NY Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.