Old Second Bancorp, Inc.

NasdaqGS:OSBC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$832.5m

Old Second Bancorp Valuation

Is OSBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OSBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OSBC ($18.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($36.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OSBC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OSBC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

OSBC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-8.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OSBC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OSBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27x
NBBK NB Bancorp
68.4x45.0%US$884.4m
BFC Bank First
12.9x-2.5%US$1.1b
BFST Business First Bancshares
14.8x21.5%US$882.1m
CFB CrossFirst Bankshares
11.8x9.6%US$871.6m
OSBC Old Second Bancorp
9.9x-1.1%US$832.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OSBC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the peer average (27x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OSBC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OSBC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OSBC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OSBC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.9x
Fair PE Ratio11.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OSBC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OSBC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.60
US$19.75
+6.2%
8.2%US$23.00US$18.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$16.40
US$19.75
+20.4%
8.2%US$23.00US$18.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$15.06
US$19.50
+29.5%
9.7%US$22.50US$17.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$17.03
US$20.10
+18.0%
6.4%US$22.50US$19.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$16.20
US$19.25
+18.8%
3.6%US$20.00US$18.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$14.89
US$17.67
+18.6%
6.3%US$19.00US$16.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$14.46
US$17.67
+22.2%
6.3%US$19.00US$16.00n/a6
May ’25US$13.84
US$17.67
+27.6%
6.3%US$19.00US$16.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$13.55
US$17.75
+31.0%
5.6%US$19.00US$16.50n/a6
Mar ’25US$13.37
US$17.75
+32.8%
5.6%US$19.00US$16.50n/a6
Feb ’25US$13.59
US$17.75
+30.6%
5.6%US$19.00US$16.50n/a6
Jan ’25US$15.44
US$18.75
+21.4%
4.3%US$20.00US$18.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$14.92
US$18.00
+20.6%
5.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$13.60
US$18.00
+32.4%
5.6%US$19.00US$16.00US$16.406
Oct ’24US$13.61
US$18.17
+33.5%
3.8%US$19.00US$17.00US$15.066
Sep ’24US$15.04
US$18.50
+23.0%
2.7%US$19.00US$18.00US$17.036
Aug ’24US$16.29
US$18.50
+13.6%
2.7%US$19.00US$18.00US$16.206
Jul ’24US$13.06
US$17.33
+32.7%
4.3%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.896
Jun ’24US$12.07
US$17.33
+43.6%
4.3%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.466
May ’24US$12.22
US$17.33
+41.8%
4.3%US$18.00US$16.00US$13.846
Apr ’24US$14.06
US$20.60
+46.5%
3.9%US$22.00US$20.00US$13.555
Mar ’24US$16.50
US$21.10
+27.9%
4.8%US$22.50US$20.00US$13.375
Feb ’24US$16.85
US$21.10
+25.2%
4.8%US$22.50US$20.00US$13.595
Jan ’24US$16.04
US$20.60
+28.4%
3.9%US$22.00US$20.00US$15.445
Dec ’23US$17.46
US$20.60
+18.0%
3.9%US$22.00US$20.00US$14.925
Nov ’23US$16.43
US$20.40
+24.2%
2.4%US$21.00US$20.00US$13.605

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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