Stock Analysis

Pulling back 5.1% this week, OceanFirst Financial's NASDAQ:OCFC) one-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

NasdaqGS:OCFC
Source: Shutterstock

On average, over time, stock markets tend to rise higher. This makes investing attractive. But if when you choose to buy stocks, some of them will be below average performers. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the OceanFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:OCFC) share price is up 25% in the last year, that falls short of the market return. Zooming out, the stock is actually down 19% in the last three years.

While this past week has detracted from the company's one-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for OceanFirst Financial

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year, OceanFirst Financial actually saw its earnings per share drop 32%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the OceanFirst Financial's share price. Revenue actually dropped 14% over last year. Usually that correlates with a lower share price, but let's face it, the gyrations of the market are sometimes only as clear as mud.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:OCFC Earnings and Revenue Growth October 7th 2024

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of OceanFirst Financial, it has a TSR of 31% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

OceanFirst Financial provided a TSR of 31% over the year (including dividends). That's fairly close to the broader market return. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 1.3%, which was endured over half a decade. We're pretty skeptical of turnaround stories, but it's good to see the recent share price recovery. If you would like to research OceanFirst Financial in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.