New Risk • May 14
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 3.4% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$82k sold). Price Target Changed • May 05
Price target increased by 11% to US$28.25 Up from US$25.50, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of US$24.17. Stock is up 4.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$3.01 for next year compared to US$3.35 last year. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: US$0.76 (down from US$0.80 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$24.9m (down 1.3% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$9.95m (down 5.8% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 40% (down from 42% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Apr 07
Price target increased by 11% to US$28.25 Up from US$25.50, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of US$24.54. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$3.22 for next year compared to US$3.35 last year. Declared Dividend • Mar 23
Dividend of US$0.20 announced Dividend of US$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 6th April 2026 Payment date: 5th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by earnings (24% payout ratio) and is expected to be well covered in 3 years' time (21% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 27% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 11% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Mar 20
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or About May 5, 2026 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about May 5, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 6, 2026. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 18
Independent Director recently sold US$82k worth of stock On the 12th of March, Charles Cirillo sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly US$22.94 per share. This transaction amounted to 14% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$472k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Mar 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$3.35 (down from US$3.58 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$104.9m (flat on FY 2024). Net income: US$44.4m (down 5.7% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 42% (down from 45% in FY 2024). Net interest margin (NIM): 5.25% (down from 5.62% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.7% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 08
Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock John McKenzie intends to sell 3k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 5th of March. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$24.08, it would amount to US$72k. Since June 2025, John has owned 35.64k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$375k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Announcement • Feb 20
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2026 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2026. Announcement • Jan 30
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2025 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charge-offs for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. For the quarter, with respect to the allowance for credit losses for loans, the company charged-off $24,000 as compared to charge-offs of $1.2 million during the quarter ended December 31, 2024. The charge-offs during the quarter ended December 31, 2025 were against various unpaid overdrafts in the demand deposit accounts. The charge-offs during the quarter ended December 31, 2024 were due to an uncollectible $1.0 million commercial and industrial loan, an overdrawn demand deposit account totaling $202,000, and various smaller unpaid overdrafts in the company's demand deposit accounts. Reported Earnings • Jan 29
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$3.34 (down from US$3.58 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$104.9m (flat on FY 2024). Net income: US$44.4m (down 5.7% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 42% (down from 45% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.9% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year. Announcement • Jan 27
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. and NorthEast Community Bank Announces Directorate Changes nounced that On January 20, 2026, Linda M. Swan notified the NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc“Company” and NorthEast Community Bank (the “Bank”) that she will be retiring as a director of the Company and the Bank effective as of January 20, 2026. Ms. Swan’s retirement was not the result of any disagreement with the Company or the Bank regarding the operations, policies or practices of the Company or the Bank. (d) On January 22, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company and the Bank appointed Lynette Bennett to serve as a director of the Company and the Bank. Ms. Bennett was appointed to fill the vacancy on the Board of Directors of the Company and the Bank resulting from the retirement of Ms. Swan. Declared Dividend • Dec 22
Dividend of US$0.20 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.20. Ex-date: 5th January 2026 Payment date: 6th February 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by earnings (23% payout ratio) and is expected to be well covered in 3 years' time (22% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 27% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 11% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Dec 20
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. announces Quarterly dividend, payable on February 06, 2026 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced Quarterly dividend of USD 0.2000 per share payable on February 06, 2026, ex-date on January 05, 2026 and record date on January 05, 2026. New Risk • Nov 09
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 20% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (20% increase in shares outstanding). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$224k sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 31
Executive VP & CFO recently sold US$81k worth of stock On the 28th of October, Donald Hom sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly US$20.19 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.8% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$121k. Donald has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by US$190k. Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.90 (down from US$0.97 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$27.0m (down 2.1% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$11.9m (down 6.5% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 44% (down from 46% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 3.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 24
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charged-Offs for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charged-offs for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. For the period, With respect to the allowance for credit losses for loans, company charged-off $75,000 during the three months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to charge-offs of $82,000 during the three months ended September 30, 2024. The charge-offs during both periods were against various unpaid overdrafts in our demand deposit accounts. Announcement • Sep 19
NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or about November 7, 2025 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about November 7, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 3, 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 01
Upcoming dividend of US$0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 September 2025. Payment date: 06 October 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 21% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 29
President recently sold US$121k worth of stock On the 26th of August, Jose Collazo sold around 5k shares on-market at roughly US$22.33 per share. This transaction amounted to 5.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Jose's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Aug 24
President notifies of intention to sell stock Jose Collazo intends to sell 5k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 22nd of August. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$22.50, it would amount to US$122k. Since December 2024, Jose's direct individual holding has increased from 105.90k shares to 109.40k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$264k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Announcement • Aug 22
NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Special Cash Dividend, Payable on or about October 6, 2025 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a special cash dividend of $0.20 per share on its outstanding common stock. The special cash dividend will be paid on or about October 6, 2025, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 8, 2025. New Risk • Jul 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Jul 27
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.84 (down from US$0.98 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$25.9m (down 4.6% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$11.2m (down 13% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 43% (down from 47% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 3.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Jul 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 2 experienced directors. 7 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Joel Morgenthau was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. New Risk • Jun 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Declared Dividend • Jun 23
First quarter dividend of US$0.20 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.20. Ex-date: 7th July 2025 Payment date: 6th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 24% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 4.1% over the next year. However, it would need to fall by 81% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Jun 20
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or About August 6, 2025 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about August 6, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 7, 2025. Reported Earnings • Apr 23
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.80 (vs US$0.87 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.80 (down from US$0.87 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$25.3m (down 1.7% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$10.6m (down 7.1% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 42% (down from 44% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 22
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charged-Offs for the Three Months Ended Mar. 31, 2025 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charged-offs for the three months ended Mar. 31, 2025. With respect to the allowance for credit losses for loans, the company charged-off $117,000 during the three months ended March 31, 2025 as compared to charge-offs of $21,000 during the three months ended March 31, 2024. The charge-offs during both periods were against various unpaid overdrafts in the company's demand deposit accounts. Price Target Changed • Mar 25
Price target decreased by 13% to US$27.00 Down from US$31.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 19% above last closing price of US$22.77. Stock is up 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$3.18 for next year compared to US$3.58 last year. Declared Dividend • Mar 24
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.20 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.20. Ex-date: 7th April 2025 Payment date: 6th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by earnings (14% payout ratio) and is expected to be well covered in 3 years' time (19% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 21% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 12% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 84% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 16
Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock Charles Cirillo intends to sell 3k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 14th of March. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$22.93, it would amount to US$66k. Since June 2024, Charles has owned 24.49k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$210k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Mar 13
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$3.58 (up from US$3.32 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$104.8m (up 5.0% from FY 2023). Net income: US$47.1m (up 1.7% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 45% (down from 46% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Net interest margin (NIM): 5.62% (down from 6.41% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 49% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 21
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2025 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2025. Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$3.64 (up from US$3.32 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$105.8m (up 6.0% from FY 2023). Net income: US$47.8m (up 3.3% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 45% (down from 46% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 28% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 01
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2024 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charge-offs for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2024. For the quarter, the company charged-off $232,000 as compared to charge-offs of $27,000 a year ago. The charge-offs during both periods were against various unpaid overdrafts in demand deposit accounts. Declared Dividend • Dec 23
Third quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.15. Ex-date: 3rd January 2025 Payment date: 5th February 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by earnings (11% payout ratio) and is expected to be well covered in 3 years' time (19% forecast payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 21% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 15% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 88% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Dec 20
NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or about February 5, 2025 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about February 5, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 3, 2025. New Risk • Dec 16
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$210k sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 08
Executive VP & CFO recently sold US$87k worth of stock On the 5th of December, Donald Hom sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly US$29.09 per share. This transaction amounted to 5.6% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Donald's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.91 (vs US$0.80 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.91 (up from US$0.80 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$27.5m (up 9.3% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$12.7m (up 7.1% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 46% (in line with 3Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 29
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charged-Offs for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2024 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charged-offs for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. With respect to the allowance for credit losses for loans, the company charged-off $82,000 during the three months ended September 30, 2024 as compared to charge-offs of $71,000 during the three months ended September 30, 2023. Declared Dividend • Sep 23
Second quarter dividend of US$0.30 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.30. Ex-date: 4th October 2024 Payment date: 6th November 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 16% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Earnings per share has grown by 39% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Sep 22
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Declares Special Cash Dividend, Payable on or About November 6, 2024 On September 19, 2024, NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announcing that its Board of Directors has (i) declared a special cash dividend of $0.15 per share on the Company’s outstanding common stock. The special cash dividend will be paid on or about November 6, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 4, 2024. Announcement • Sep 21
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Approves Quarterly Cash Dividend, to Be Paid on or About November 6, 2024 On September 19, 2024, NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announcing that its Board of Directors has approved an increase in the Company’s quarterly cash dividend from $0.10 per share to $0.15 per share. The increased quarterly dividend will be paid on or about November 6, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 4, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 10
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 30% to US$22.11. The fair value is estimated to be US$27.74, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.1% in a year. Earnings are forecast to decline by 25% in the next year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 20
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 26% to US$21.81. The fair value is estimated to be US$27.46, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.1% in a year. Earnings are forecast to decline by 25% in the next year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 02
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 29% to US$21.44. The fair value is estimated to be US$27.47, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.1% in a year. Earnings are forecast to decline by 25% in the next year. Reported Earnings • Jul 25
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.98 (up from US$0.75 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$27.2m (up 11% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$12.8m (up 15% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 47% (up from 45% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 36%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Banks industry in the US are expected to grow by 6.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 30% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to US$20.87, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Banks industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 114% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 27
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$98.2m to US$99.2m. EPS estimate increased from US$2.56 to US$2.93 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 20% next year vs 2.0% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US . Consensus price target up from US$18.00 to US$19.50. Share price rose 3.7% to US$17.40 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 25
Price target increased by 8.3% to US$19.50 Up from US$18.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 12% above last closing price of US$17.42. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.93 for next year compared to US$3.32 last year. Declared Dividend • Jun 24
First quarter dividend of US$0.10 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.10. Ex-date: 5th July 2024 Payment date: 6th August 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 16% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 19% over the next year. However, it would need to fall by 91% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.87 (up from US$0.77 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$25.7m (up 7.3% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$11.4m (up 1.2% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 44% (down from 47% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 19%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Banks industry in the US are expected to grow by 6.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$3.32 (up from US$1.61 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$99.8m (up 53% from FY 2022). Net income: US$46.3m (up 86% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 46% (up from 38% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Net interest margin (NIM): 6.41% (up from 5.32% in FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 6.8%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 22
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or About May 6, 2024 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about May 6, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 5, 2024. Price Target Changed • Mar 12
Price target decreased by 7.5% to US$18.50 Down from US$20.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 20% above last closing price of US$15.38. Stock is up 6.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.56 for next year compared to US$3.32 last year. Announcement • Feb 23
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2024 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 06
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$3.32 (up from US$1.61 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$99.8m (up 53% from FY 2022). Net income: US$46.3m (up 86% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 46% (up from 38% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 6.8%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Banks industry in the US are expected to grow by 5.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 02
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2023 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported charge-offs for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023. For the quarter, the company charged-off $27,000 as compared to charge-offs of $426,000 a year ago. The company recorded no recoveries from previously charged-off loans during the three months ended December 31, 2023 and 2022. Announcement • Dec 22
NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or About February 5, 2024 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about February 5, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 3, 2024. Price Target Changed • Dec 12
Price target increased by 8.1% to US$20.00 Up from US$18.50, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 16% above last closing price of US$17.18. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$3.11 for next year compared to US$1.61 last year. New Risk • Nov 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.80 (up from US$0.48 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$25.2m (up 42% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$11.8m (up 57% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 47% (up from 42% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Banks industry in the US are expected to grow by 4.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 28
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share at 1.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 October 2023. Payment date: 08 November 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 9.3% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (5.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.9%). Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.75 (up from US$0.35 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$24.4m (up 74% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$11.1m (up 106% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 45% (up from 38% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is expected to decline by 12% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Banks industry in the US are expected to grow by 4.4%. Price Target Changed • Jun 27
Price target increased by 13% to US$17.00 Up from US$15.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 18% above last closing price of US$14.42. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.61 for next year compared to US$1.61 last year. Announcement • Jun 23
NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on or about August 4, 2023 NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per common share. The dividend will be paid on or about August 4, 2023 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 5, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • May 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$87.5m to US$89.4m. EPS estimate increased from US$2.32 to US$2.61 per share. Net income forecast to grow 4.8% next year vs 5.9% decline forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target down from US$16.00 to US$15.00. Share price fell 2.3% to US$12.81 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.80 (up from US$0.23 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$24.0m (up 100% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$11.2m (up 209% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 47% (up from 30% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 03
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share at 1.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 April 2023. Payment date: 08 May 2023. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.7%). Price Target Changed • Mar 28
Price target decreased by 11% to US$16.00 Down from US$18.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 24% above last closing price of US$12.86. Stock is up 7.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.32 for next year compared to US$1.61 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 17
Independent Director recently bought US$62k worth of stock On the 9th of March, Charles Cirillo bought around 4k shares on-market at roughly US$15.48 per share. This transaction amounted to 20% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$395k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 15
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$74.2m to US$89.3m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.79 to US$2.41 per share. Net income forecast to grow 46% next year vs 4.9% decline forecast for Mortgage industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$15.50 to US$18.00. Share price was steady at US$15.85 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 03
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$1.61 (up from US$0.75 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$65.1m (up 55% from FY 2021). Net income: US$24.8m (up 109% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 38% (up from 28% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year. Announcement • Feb 02
Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Reports Unaudited Impairment Loss for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2022 Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. reported unaudited impairment loss for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2022. For the year, the company reported impairment loss on goodwill of $451,000. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 23
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 December 2022. Payment date: 06 February 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.7%). Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 2 experienced directors. 7 highly experienced directors. Director Linda Swan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$58.0m to US$65.0m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.33 to US$1.63 per share. Net income forecast to grow 27% next year vs 3.1% growth forecast for Mortgage industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$13.50 to US$15.50. Share price rose 4.8% to US$13.79 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 03
Price target increased to US$15.50 Up from US$13.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 15% above last closing price of US$13.50. Stock is up 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.33 for next year compared to US$0.75 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.48 (vs US$0.05 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.48 (up from US$0.05 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$17.8m (up 126% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$7.54m (up US$6.81m from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 42% (up from 9.3% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Mortgage industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 06
Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 October 2022. Payment date: 15 November 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.6%).