Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MSBI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$542.3m

Midland States Bancorp Valuation

Is MSBI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSBI ($24.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($46.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSBI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSBI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MSBI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio10.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSBI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MSBI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.9x
TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY
9x0.5%US$530.0m
EQBK Equity Bancshares
67.4x63.4%US$527.0m
CPF Central Pacific Financial
9.1x1.5%US$535.0m
FMNB Farmers National Banc
9.9x0.03%US$493.7m
MSBI Midland States Bancorp
8.3x0.8%US$542.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (23.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSBI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSBI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSBI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio9.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSBI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$24.82
US$27.75
+11.8%
3.9%US$29.00US$26.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$23.90
US$28.50
+19.2%
1.8%US$29.00US$28.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$25.73
US$28.50
+10.8%
1.8%US$29.00US$28.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$27.56
US$26.75
-2.9%
7.2%US$29.00US$24.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$23.85
US$23.25
-2.5%
3.6%US$24.00US$22.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$21.75
US$23.25
+6.9%
3.6%US$24.00US$22.00n/a4
Oct ’24US$20.54
US$24.50
+19.3%
3.5%US$25.00US$23.00n/a4
Sep ’24US$22.46
US$25.25
+12.4%
1.7%US$26.00US$25.00n/a4
Aug ’24US$23.46
US$25.25
+7.6%
1.7%US$26.00US$25.00n/a4
Jul ’24US$19.91
US$22.25
+11.8%
5.8%US$24.00US$21.00n/a4
Jun ’24US$19.69
US$22.25
+13.0%
5.8%US$24.00US$21.00n/a4
May ’24US$19.97
US$23.88
+19.6%
4.3%US$25.50US$23.00n/a4
Apr ’24US$21.42
US$28.13
+31.3%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50n/a4
Mar ’24US$26.36
US$28.13
+6.7%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50US$23.904
Feb ’24US$25.54
US$28.13
+10.1%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50US$25.734
Jan ’24US$26.62
US$30.00
+12.7%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$27.564
Dec ’23US$27.57
US$30.00
+8.8%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$23.854
Nov ’23US$28.12
US$30.00
+6.7%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$21.754
Oct ’23US$23.57
US$29.50
+25.2%
6.1%US$32.00US$27.00US$20.544
Sep ’23US$25.30
US$30.38
+20.1%
3.6%US$32.00US$29.00US$22.464
Aug ’23US$27.20
US$29.50
+8.5%
5.1%US$31.00US$27.00US$23.464
Jul ’23US$24.60
US$29.00
+17.9%
6.9%US$31.00US$27.00US$19.914
Jun ’23US$26.35
US$30.50
+15.7%
3.7%US$32.00US$29.00US$19.694
May ’23US$26.36
US$32.25
+22.3%
3.4%US$34.00US$31.00US$19.974
Apr ’23US$28.92
US$32.75
+13.2%
2.5%US$34.00US$32.00US$21.424
Mar ’23US$28.00
US$31.00
+10.7%
4.0%US$33.00US$30.00US$26.364

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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