Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MSBI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$586.2m

Midland States Bancorp Valuation

Is MSBI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSBI ($27.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($44.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSBI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSBI?

Key metric: As MSBI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MSBI. This is calculated by dividing MSBI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MSBI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.7x
EarningsUS$50.14m
Market CapUS$586.19m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSBI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MSBI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.4x
THFF First Financial
13.7x17.9%US$588.4m
AROW Arrow Financial
16.9x17.0%US$559.9m
PFIS Peoples Financial Services
97.2x68.2%US$564.6m
GCBC Greene County Bancorp
21.8xn/aUS$537.9m
MSBI Midland States Bancorp
11.7x15.0%US$586.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the peer average (37.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSBI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MSBI 11.7xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies92PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the US Banks industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSBI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSBI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.7x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSBI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.41
US$26.50
-3.3%
8.6%US$30.00US$24.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$24.77
US$25.50
+2.9%
4.4%US$27.00US$24.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$21.68
US$24.00
+10.7%
5.9%US$26.00US$22.00n/a4
Sep ’25US$22.77
US$24.25
+6.5%
7.4%US$27.00US$22.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$22.63
US$25.00
+10.5%
6.3%US$27.00US$23.00n/a4
Jul ’25US$22.65
US$25.13
+10.9%
6.0%US$27.00US$23.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$22.72
US$25.13
+10.6%
6.0%US$27.00US$23.00n/a4
May ’25US$22.99
US$25.13
+9.3%
6.0%US$27.00US$23.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$24.77
US$27.75
+12.0%
3.9%US$29.00US$26.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$23.90
US$28.50
+19.2%
1.8%US$29.00US$28.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$25.73
US$28.50
+10.8%
1.8%US$29.00US$28.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$27.56
US$26.75
-2.9%
7.2%US$29.00US$24.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$23.85
US$23.25
-2.5%
3.6%US$24.00US$22.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$21.75
US$23.25
+6.9%
3.6%US$24.00US$22.00US$24.774
Oct ’24US$20.54
US$24.50
+19.3%
3.5%US$25.00US$23.00US$21.684
Sep ’24US$22.46
US$25.25
+12.4%
1.7%US$26.00US$25.00US$22.774
Aug ’24US$23.46
US$25.25
+7.6%
1.7%US$26.00US$25.00US$22.634
Jul ’24US$19.91
US$22.25
+11.8%
5.8%US$24.00US$21.00US$22.654
Jun ’24US$19.69
US$22.25
+13.0%
5.8%US$24.00US$21.00US$22.724
May ’24US$19.97
US$23.88
+19.6%
4.3%US$25.50US$23.00US$22.994
Apr ’24US$21.42
US$28.13
+31.3%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50US$24.774
Mar ’24US$26.36
US$28.13
+6.7%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50US$23.904
Feb ’24US$25.54
US$28.13
+10.1%
5.9%US$30.00US$25.50US$25.734
Jan ’24US$26.62
US$30.00
+12.7%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$27.564
Dec ’23US$27.57
US$30.00
+8.8%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$23.854
Nov ’23US$28.12
US$30.00
+6.7%
2.4%US$31.00US$29.00US$21.754

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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