Middlefield Banc Corp.

NasdaqCM:MBCN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$231.9m

Middlefield Banc Valuation

Is MBCN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MBCN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MBCN ($28.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($35.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MBCN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MBCN?

Key metric: As MBCN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MBCN. This is calculated by dividing MBCN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MBCN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.4x
EarningsUS$14.21m
Market CapUS$231.88m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MBCN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MBCN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
RVRF River Financial
7.9xn/aUS$237.5m
CVCY Central Valley Community Bancorp
9.2x39.8%US$235.3m
TRUX Truxton
12.3xn/aUS$211.6m
BWFG Bankwell Financial Group
16.3x45.2%US$244.2m
MBCN Middlefield Banc
16.4x7.2%US$231.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MBCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MBCN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MBCN 16.4xIndustry Avg. 12.4xNo. of Companies82PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MBCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MBCN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MBCN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.4x
Fair PE Ratio12x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MBCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MBCN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$28.86
US$30.67
+6.3%
4.1%US$32.00US$29.00n/a3
Dec ’25US$30.98
US$30.00
-3.2%
2.7%US$31.00US$29.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$28.81
US$29.67
+3.0%
1.6%US$30.00US$29.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$28.41
US$27.33
-3.8%
6.9%US$30.00US$26.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$23.33
US$24.00
+2.9%
3.4%US$25.00US$23.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$21.10
US$24.00
+13.7%
3.4%US$25.00US$23.00n/a3
May ’25US$21.49
US$24.00
+11.7%
3.4%US$25.00US$23.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$23.55
US$28.67
+21.7%
9.2%US$31.00US$25.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$24.60
US$31.00
+26.0%
2.6%US$32.00US$30.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$27.12
US$31.00
+14.3%
2.6%US$32.00US$30.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$32.37
US$27.50
-15.0%
1.5%US$28.00US$27.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$29.34
US$27.50
-6.3%
1.5%US$28.00US$27.00US$30.983
Nov ’24US$25.30
US$27.50
+8.7%
1.5%US$28.00US$27.00US$28.813
Oct ’24US$25.41
US$29.00
+14.1%
3.4%US$30.00US$28.00US$28.412
Sep ’24US$26.70
US$29.00
+8.6%
3.4%US$30.00US$28.00US$27.972
Aug ’24US$29.35
US$29.00
-1.2%
3.4%US$30.00US$28.00US$24.772
Jul ’24US$26.80
US$28.00
+4.5%
3.6%US$29.00US$27.00US$23.332
Jun ’24US$26.03
US$28.00
+7.6%
3.6%US$29.00US$27.00US$21.102
May ’24US$26.82
US$28.00
+4.4%
3.6%US$29.00US$27.00US$21.492
Jan ’24US$27.40
US$29.33
+7.1%
3.2%US$30.00US$28.00US$32.373
Dec ’23US$28.60
US$29.00
+1.4%
3.4%US$30.00US$28.00US$29.342

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 00:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Middlefield Banc Corp. is covered by 7 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James BeuryBoenning & Scattergood, Inc.
Brendan NosalHovde Group, LLC
Nicholas CucharaleHovde Group, LLC