Middlefield Banc Corp. Just Beat EPS By 8.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The annual results for Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ:MBCN) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Middlefield Banc missed revenue estimates by 3.7%, coming in atUS$66m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.93 beat expectations, coming in 8.3% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Middlefield Banc

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Middlefield Banc's four analysts is for revenues of US$71.1m in 2025. This reflects a credible 7.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.92, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$70.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.82 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Middlefield Banc's earnings potential following these results.

The average the analysts price target fell 6.5% to US$28.67, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Middlefield Banc, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Middlefield Banc is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Middlefield Banc's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 680 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Middlefield Banc's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Middlefield Banc's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Middlefield Banc analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Middlefield Banc's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.