Middlefield Banc Corp. Just Beat EPS By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ:MBCN) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.7% to hit US$18m. Middlefield Banc also reported a statutory profit of US$0.60, which was an impressive 30% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Middlefield Banc's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$72.8m in 2025. This would be a meaningful 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.4% to US$2.11. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$71.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.94 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Middlefield Banc

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$28.33, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Middlefield Banc, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Middlefield Banc is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Middlefield Banc'shistorical trends, as the 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Middlefield Banc is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Middlefield Banc following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Middlefield Banc analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Middlefield Banc's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.