Earnings Miss: ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Missed EPS By 7.3% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNOB) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 5.8% short of analyst estimates at US$61m, and statutory earnings of US$0.41 per share missed forecasts by 7.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ConnectOne Bancorp

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ConnectOne Bancorp from four analysts is for revenues of US$361.1m in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 45% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 35% to US$1.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$361.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.29 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$28.00, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ConnectOne Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that ConnectOne Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 35% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ConnectOne Bancorp to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ConnectOne Bancorp analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of ConnectOne Bancorp's balance sheet, and whether we think ConnectOne Bancorp is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.