Can Commerce Bancshares Inc (NASDAQ:CBSH) Survive The Next Financial Crisis?

As a small-cap finance stock with a market capitalisation of US$6.9b, the risk and profitability of Commerce Bancshares Inc (NASDAQ:CBSH) are largely tied to the underlying economic growth of the region it operates in US. A bank’s cash flow is directly impacted by economic growth as it is the main driver of deposit levels and demand for loans which it profits from. Following the Financial Crisis in 2008, a set of reforms termed Basel III was enforced to bolster risk management, regulation, and supervision in the financial services industry. These reforms target bank level regulation and aims to improve the banking sector’s ability to absorb shocks arising from economic stress which could expose financial institutions to vulnerabilities. Since its financial standing can unexpectedly decline in the case of an adverse macro event such as political instability, it is important to understand how prudent the bank is at managing its risk levels. High liquidity and low leverage could position Commerce Bancshares favourably at the face of macro headwinds. A way to measure this risk is to look at three leverage and liquidity metrics which I will take you through today.

See our latest analysis for Commerce Bancshares

NasdaqGS:CBSH Historical Debt November 27th 18
NasdaqGS:CBSH Historical Debt November 27th 18

Is CBSH’s Leverage Level Appropriate?

Banks with low leverage are better positioned to weather adverse headwinds as they have less debt to pay off. A bank’s leverage may be thought of as the level of assets it owns compared to its own shareholders’ equity. Though banks are required to have a certain level of buffer to meet its capital requirements, Commerce Bancshares’s leverage level of 8.93x is very safe and substantially below the maximum limit of 20x. With assets 8.93 times equity, the banks has maintained a prudent level of its own fund relative to borrowed fund which places it in a strong position to pay back its debt in times of adverse events. Should the bank need to increase its debt levels to meet capital requirements, it will have abundant headroom to do so.

What Is CBSH’s Level of Liquidity?

Handing Money Transparent Due to its illiquid nature, loans are an important asset class we should learn more about. Usually, they should not be higher than 70% of total assets, which is the case for Commerce Bancshares’s ratio at 55%. At this level of loan, the bank has preserved a sensible level between maintaining liquidity and generating interest income from the loan.

What is CBSH’s Liquidity Discrepancy?

Banks operate by lending out its customers’ deposits as loans and charge a higher interest rate. Loans are generally fixed term which means they cannot be readily realized, however, customer deposits are liabilities which must be repaid on-demand and in short notice. This mismatch between illiquid loans and liquid deposits poses a risk for the bank if unusual events occur and requires it to immediately repay its depositors. Relative to the prudent industry loan to deposit level of 90%, Commerce Bancshares’s ratio of over 69% is markedly lower, which means the bank is lending out less than its total level of deposits and places the bank in a relatively safe liquidity position given it has not excessively lent out its deposits and has maintained a suitable level for compliance. Given the large headroom for growth in loans, the bank has opportunity to grow its interest income.

Next Steps:

Commerce Bancshares passes all of our liquidity and leverage checks which shows it is prudent in managing those factors. This gives us confidence in the operational side of the business, an important aspect to consider before investing in the stock. The bank’s favourable liquidity and leverage position exposes it to less risk when it comes to repaying financial obligations, in particular, in the case of an adverse macro event. We’ve only touched on operational risks for CBSH in this article. But as a stock investment, there are other fundamentals you need to understand. Below, I’ve compiled three key aspects you should further research:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for CBSH’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for CBSH’s outlook.
  2. Valuation: What is CBSH worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CBSH is currently mispriced by the market.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.