BayFirst Financial (NasdaqCM:BAFN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BAFN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BAFN ($18.59) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($85.49)

BAFN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

BAFN Stock Overview

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for First Home Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services for businesses and individuals.

Rewards

Trading at 78.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Risk Analysis

Revenue has declined by 29.1% over the past year

Unstable dividend track record

Profit margins (2.5%) are lower than last year (18%)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

+ 1 more risk

BayFirst Financial Competitors

Bay Community Bancorp

OTCPK:CBOB.A

US$76.4m

River Valley Community Bancorp

OTCPK:RVCB

US$76.5m

First Ottawa Bancshares

OTCPK:FOTB

US$77.2m

Village Bank and Trust Financial

NasdaqCM:VBFC

US$73.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BayFirst Financial
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$18.59
52 Week High	US$32.50
52 Week Low	US$15.45
Beta	1.24
1 Month Change	3.28%
3 Month Change	14.40%
1 Year Change	-28.50%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	8.71%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 27

First Home Bancorp GAAP EPS of $0.03, revenue of $25.35M

First Home Bancorp press release (NASDAQ:BAFN): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.03. Revenue of $25.35M (-50.4% Y/Y).

Shareholder Returns

	BAFN	US Banks	US Market
7D	-2.2%	3.2%	1.1%
1Y	-28.5%	-8.2%	-9.0%

Return vs Industry: BAFN underperformed the US Banks industry which returned -8.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BAFN underperformed the US Market which returned -9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BAFN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BAFN volatility
BAFN Average Weekly Movement	8.8%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.6%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: BAFN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BAFN's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	485	Tony Leo	https://www.firsthomebank.com

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for First Home Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services for businesses and individuals. The company offers checking and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides home loans, including residential mortgages, home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit; and business lending services comprising minority lending programs, PPP loan forgiveness services, SBA loans, and commercial lending services.

BayFirst Financial Fundamentals Summary

How do BayFirst Financial's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BAFN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$74.74m
Earnings (TTM)	US$2.97m
Revenue (TTM)	US$119.19m

25.2x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/B Ratio

Is BAFN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BAFN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$119.19m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$119.19m
Other Expenses	US$116.22m
Earnings	US$2.97m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.74
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	2.49%
Debt/Equity Ratio	53.1%

How did BAFN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.7%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

Does BAFN pay a reliable dividends?

See BAFN dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy BAFN by to receive an upcoming dividend?
BayFirst Financial dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 31 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	12 days
Days until Dividend pay date	27 days

Does BAFN pay a reliable dividends?

See BAFN dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BAFN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAFN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BAFN. This is calculated by dividing BAFN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BAFN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$74.74m

BAFN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAFN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BAFN PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAFN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.9x
CBOB.A Bay Community Bancorp	10.5x	n/a	US$76.4m
RVCB River Valley Community Bancorp	14.6x	n/a	US$76.5m
FOTB First Ottawa Bancshares	6.6x	n/a	US$77.2m
VBFC Village Bank and Trust Financial	7.9x	n/a	US$73.2m
BAFN BayFirst Financial	25.2x	n/a	US$74.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAFN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the peer average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAFN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAFN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the US Banks industry average (10.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAFN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAFN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BAFN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAFN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAFN ($18.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($85.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAFN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is BayFirst Financial forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.5%

Forecasted Banks industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as BayFirst Financial has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Discover growth companies

Examine BayFirst Financial's financial health to determine how well-positioned it is against times of financial stress by looking at its level of debt over time and how much cash it has left.

Past Performance

How has BayFirst Financial performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-90.2%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BAFN has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BAFN's current net profit margins (2.5%) are lower than last year (18%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if BAFN's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BAFN's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BAFN had negative earnings growth (-90.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Banks industry average (8.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BAFN's Return on Equity (4.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is BayFirst Financial's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: BAFN's Assets to Equity ratio (9.9x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: BAFN has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (225%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 92% of BAFN's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: BAFN has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (69%).

Low Risk Deposits: BAFN's Loans to Deposits ratio (83%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: BAFN has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.7%).

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Dividend

What is BayFirst Financial current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.72%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BAFN's dividend (1.72%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.48%).

High Dividend: BAFN's dividend (1.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.99%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, BAFN has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BAFN's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (40.2%), BAFN's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tony Leo (61 yo)

9yrs

Tenure

US$1,317,827

Compensation

Mr. Anthony Nicholas Leo, also known as Tony, J.D., has served as Chief Executive Officer of BayFirst Financial Corp. since 2013. He previously served as Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Com...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tony's total compensation ($USD1.32M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD758.99K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tony's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BAFN's management team is considered experienced (2.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BAFN's board of directors are considered experienced (8.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: BAFN insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31