Why XPeng (XPEV) Balances Record Deliveries With Cautious Profit Outlook and Heavy AI Investment

• On November 17, 2025, XPeng reported record-breaking third-quarter results with revenue rising to CNY 20.38 billion and vehicle deliveries for the year-to-date reaching 355,209, while also narrowing its net loss compared to the previous year.
• The company’s cautious fourth-quarter guidance and ongoing investments in AI-driven projects and robotics highlight both strong operational momentum and growing concerns about near-term profitability.
• Let’s explore how XPeng’s record deliveries and conservative outlook impact the investment narrative and future growth prospects.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

XPeng Investment Narrative Recap

XPeng’s investment story centers on the belief that strong innovation and rapid unit growth will eventually translate into sustainable profitability. While the company’s latest results reinforced progress on both revenue and margins, its conservative fourth-quarter guidance and heavy spending on AI-driven projects mean the path to consistent profits remains the key short-term catalyst and risk. The news doesn’t materially shift this dynamic, but it does highlight operational momentum alongside lingering market anxieties about near-term earnings.

Among the recent announcements, XPeng’s Q4 delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 vehicles, and implied YoY growth of up to 44.3%, directly supports its narrative of robust demand. However, this guidance paired with earnings below analyst expectations is a timely reminder that scale and technological edge must still overcome fierce price competition and elevated R&D costs to achieve the sustained margin gains investors seek.

Yet, in contrast, investors should be aware that persistent negative margins and delayed profitability could still challenge the long-term potential…

Read the full narrative on XPeng (it's free!)

XPeng's narrative projects CN¥137.4 billion in revenue and CN¥6.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 31.6% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥10.7 billion increase in earnings from the current CN¥-4.3 billion.

Uncover how XPeng's forecasts yield a $26.95 fair value, a 34% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community have fair value estimates for XPeng ranging from US$9.86 to US$33.26 per share. While many see upside opportunity, ongoing net losses and margin pressure remain critical factors to consider when weighing these views.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on XPeng - why the stock might be worth as much as 66% more than the current price!

Build Your Own XPeng Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your XPeng research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free XPeng research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate XPeng's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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