Thor Industries, Inc.'s (NYSE:THO) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Thor Industries (NYSE:THO) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 33% over the last three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Thor Industries' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Thor Industries

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Thor Industries is:

15% = US$389m ÷ US$2.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2021).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.15 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Thor Industries' Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, Thor Industries seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 16%. However, while Thor Industries has a pretty respectable ROE, its five year net income decline rate was 5.0% . We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

However, when we compared Thor Industries' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.6% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is THO fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Thor Industries Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 35% (where it is retaining 65% of its profits), Thor Industries has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, Thor Industries has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 16% over the next three years.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Thor Industries certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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