Analysts Are Updating Their Ferrari N.V. (NYSE:RACE) Estimates After Its Yearly Results

It's been a good week for Ferrari N.V. (NYSE:RACE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 8.2% to US$464. Ferrari reported €6.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €8.46 beat expectations, being 3.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Ferrari

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ferrari's 19 analysts is for revenues of €7.17b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 7.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 5.9% to €9.01. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €7.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of €9.11 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$493, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ferrari analyst has a price target of US$585 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$390. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Ferrari shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ferrari's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 14% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ferrari.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ferrari's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ferrari. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ferrari going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Ferrari that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.