Reassessing QuantumScape (QS) Valuation After New OEM Partnership and Expanded Volkswagen PowerCo Ties

QuantumScape (QS) is back in the spotlight after signing a joint development agreement with a top-10 global automaker and deepening ties with Volkswagen’s PowerCo, moves that signal real progress toward commercial solid-state batteries.

See our latest analysis for QuantumScape.

The flurry of new OEM deals, PowerCo support and progress on the Eagle Line has arrived after a choppy few weeks, with a 30 day share price return of negative 8.27 percent but a powerful year to date share price return of 106.32 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return of 127.69 percent. This suggests momentum is shifting from speculative hype toward early execution.

If this kind of shift from promise to proof interests you, it is worth exploring other auto focused opportunities via our screen of auto manufacturers.

Yet with QuantumScape still pre revenue, burning cash and now trading above consensus price targets after a triple digit year, are investors being handed an early stage bargain, or is the market already pricing in tomorrow’s growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 54.3% Undervalued

According to davidlsander, the narrative fair value of $25 sits well above QuantumScape’s last close at $11.43, framing a bold upside case.

Key Breakthroughs and Validated Performance:

• Ultra-Fast Charging: QuantumScape batteries can charge from 0% to 80% in less than 15 minutes3. Their ceramic separator can withstand current densities equivalent to a 2-minute charge (25C rate) without failure, a "remarkable leap" that "blows away any previous demonstration"3. This capability is "astonishing" and "reimagines what fast charging even means"89.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative backs such a steep upside? It leans on rapid revenue acceleration, ambitious margins and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for elite innovators.

Result: Fair Value of $25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, solid state scale up challenges and competitive advances from rivals like Toyota could delay commercialization and undermine the current upside narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this QuantumScape narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Market based signals paint a very different picture from the $25 narrative fair value. With no meaningful revenue yet, QuantumScape trades at roughly 5.7 times book value, versus about 1.6 times for the US auto components industry and 1.8 times for peers, implying a steep optimism premium.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own QuantumScape Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your QuantumScape research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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