Lear (LEA) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Momentum

Lear (LEA) has quietly outperformed the broader auto parts space over the past month, with the stock climbing about 14% as investors warm to its mix of seating scale and E-systems growth.

See our latest analysis for Lear.

Zooming out, Lear’s recent 1 month share price return of about 14% and strong year to date share price gain of roughly 28% suggest momentum is building, even though its 5 year total shareholder return remains modestly negative.

If Lear’s move has you watching the auto cycle more closely, this could be a good moment to scout other auto manufacturers that might benefit as industry sentiment improves.

Given Lear’s solid earnings momentum, modest long term track record, and a share price now hovering near analyst targets, investors face a key question: is there still upside left, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 0% Undervalued

With Lear’s fair value from the most followed narrative essentially matching the last close of $118.82, the story now hinges on execution and margin follow through.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $114.167 for Lear based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $136.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of $95.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, ambitious margin expansion and a sharply lower future earnings multiple can still argue for upside? The full narrative unpacks the math behind that tension.

Result: Fair Value of $118.83 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a prolonged E-Systems drag or sharper than expected volume declines at key OEMs could quickly erode the margin gains that underpin this thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Lear narrative.

Build Your Own Lear Narrative

If you see the story differently, or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom Lear view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lear research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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