Is Ford (F) Still Undervalued? A Fresh Look at Its Valuation After Recent Gains

Ford Motor (F) has seen its stock tick up 1% today. The movement comes even as investors search for clear catalysts, with many watching valuation trends and performance over the past month and three months for hints about what comes next.

See our latest analysis for Ford Motor.

Zooming out, Ford’s one-year total shareholder return of 26.6% points to solid performance, especially as recent momentum builds. The 90-day share price return of 13.3% stands out alongside a year-to-date share price gain of nearly 35%. After a stretch of mixed headlines, today’s uptick hints that investors are steadily warming back up to the stock’s growth potential.

If Ford’s latest move sparks your curiosity about what’s happening across the industry, now’s the perfect time to discover See the full list for free.

With the stock’s strong returns but a price hovering just below analyst targets, the key question is whether Ford is still undervalued or if all the upside is already reflected in the current market price.

Most Popular Narrative: 6% Overvalued

Ford Motor’s narrative-driven fair value estimate comes in slightly below the latest closing price, raising fresh debate over whether momentum justifies this premium. When a stock rallies ahead of its calculated worth, the real drivers behind the price tend to spark heated discussion. That is what sets the stage here.

Ford's ongoing transformation of its Ford Pro commercial platform, emphasizing high-margin, recurring revenues from software, telematics, and aftermarket services, continues to outperform, with paid software subscriptions up 24% year-over-year and aftermarket approaching 20% of Pro EBIT. This shift toward recurring digital revenues supports structurally higher net margins and enhances earnings durability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what powers this premium? The secret lies in bold profitability upgrades and a future earnings outlook that breaks from the past. What financial levers must shift for Ford to truly earn its price tag? Click through to uncover the narrative’s underlying assumptions and surprising forecasts.

Result: Fair Value of $12.27 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent electric vehicle losses and potential new trade policy headwinds could quickly undermine Ford’s current momentum if these issues are not addressed.

Find out about the key risks to this Ford Motor narrative.

Another View: Multiples Point to Undervaluation

Looking beyond fair value estimates, Ford’s market price is just 11 times its earnings. This is well below the industry average of 17.7 and the peer group at 21.4. The fair ratio is estimated at 17.6. This wide gap suggests more upside if investors shift expectations upward. Could markets be underestimating Ford?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

If you’re someone who likes to dig deeper or prefers to draw your own conclusions from the data, customizing your own fair value story takes less than three minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ford Motor research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More Smart Investment Ideas?

Don't let valuable opportunities pass you by just because you stopped at Ford. Get an edge by uncovering stocks with unique strengths using these ready-made tools:

• Tap into the next wave of technology by tracking winners among these 27 AI penny stocks, which are redefining what is possible with artificial intelligence and predictive analytics.
• Boost your portfolio’s long-term income with steady performers from these 18 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, featuring yields over 3% and strong financial health.
• Capitalize on untapped potential by targeting these 900 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where the market may have overlooked true future value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com