American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to US$4.29 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.4b were what the analysts expected, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.06 per share, an impressive 50% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings after the latest results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$5.83b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 47% to US$0.093 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.82b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 6.6% to US$5.27, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.5% per year. It's pretty clear that American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.