XPEL (XPEL): Valuation in Focus after COLOR Paint Protection Film Launch and Q3 Earnings Reveal

XPEL (XPEL) grabbed attention this week with two material events for investors: a fresh third quarter earnings report and the live unveiling of its COLOR Paint Protection Film at the 2025 SEMA Show.

See our latest analysis for XPEL.

XPEL’s share price has turned upward recently, climbing 7% over the past month with short-term momentum boosted by its SEMA Show product launch and fresh Q3 financials. Even so, investors remain cautious, as shown by the one-year total shareholder return of -15% and a modest 10% gain over five years.

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Yet with shares still down double digits from their highs and a sizeable gap to analyst price targets, the real question for investors is whether XPEL is trading at a discount or if the market already anticipates tomorrow’s growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.1% Undervalued

The narrative’s fair value places XPEL at a significant premium to its last close price of $36.16. This creates a clear disconnect between market perception and consensus projections.

Expansion into emerging and international markets (e.g., Thailand, Japan, China, Brazil, Europe, India, Middle East) is well underway, with further direct distribution efforts and M&A planned. This broadens XPEL's addressable market and diversifies revenue streams, supporting accelerated revenue growth and reducing regional concentration risk over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key element of this narrative is surging business in new global markets and a new platform primed for higher margins. Which bold financial forecasts and big margin jumps are used to fuel that price target? Dive in to uncover what truly powers this estimated upside.

Result: Fair Value of $47.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition overseas and unpredictable global auto sales could quickly challenge this optimistic scenario for XPEL, which could impact future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this XPEL narrative.

Another View: What Do Earnings Ratios Tell Us?

Switching lenses, many investors look at XPEL’s current price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4x. Compared to both its industry average (20.1x) and what’s considered a fair ratio (20.9x), shares actually look expensive today. This gap suggests buyers are paying a premium now. Is the market overlooking risks, or instead betting on stronger growth ahead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own XPEL Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to chart your own path, take a few minutes to dig into the data and build your outlook. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding XPEL.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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