Rivian (RIVN) Is Up 12.2% After First-Ever Positive Gross Profit and Steady 2025 Outlook

• Rivian Automotive recently reported third-quarter results, with revenue rising to US$1.56 billion and the company achieving its first-ever positive gross profit, while maintaining its 2025 delivery guidance of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles.
• An interesting development is Rivian's continued progress on launching its more affordable R2 SUV, expected to drive broader consumer interest and future revenue opportunities.
• We'll now explore how Rivian's move to positive gross profit signals a shift in its investment narrative and path to profitability.

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Rivian Automotive Investment Narrative Recap

Owning Rivian stock requires believing the company can shift from rapid growth to sustainable profitability, as EV adoption expands and the new R2 SUV targets a larger addressable market. The recent move to a positive gross profit is promising, yet falling EV incentives and high capital needs remain pressing challenges. The Q3 results do boost near-term confidence in profitability, but they do not materially resolve the most important short-term catalyst, scaling R2 production, and the biggest current risk: ongoing high cash burn and capital requirements.

Among recent announcements, the reaffirmed 2025 delivery guidance of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles stands out as especially relevant. Meeting this guidance underpins Rivian’s investment case by signaling execution reliability ahead of the crucial R2 launch, while falling short could delay its progress toward broader market capture and margin improvement.

In contrast, investors should also be aware of persistent cash burn and the potential impact of future capital raises on shareholder value if...

Read the full narrative on Rivian Automotive (it's free!)

Rivian Automotive's narrative projects $15.7 billion revenue and $788.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 44.9% yearly revenue growth and a $4.29 billion increase in earnings from -$3.5 billion today.

Uncover how Rivian Automotive's forecasts yield a $14.35 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from US$8.25 to US$25.41 per share, reflecting broad differences in perceived upside. Ongoing high capital expenditure and liquidity needs remain pivotal factors shaping expectations for Rivian’s ability to reach profitability, so consider a range of views.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Rivian Automotive - why the stock might be worth 46% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Rivian Automotive Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Rivian Automotive research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Rivian Automotive's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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