Lucid (LCID): Evaluating Valuation After Recent Volatility and New Autonomous Vehicle Partnerships

Lucid Group (LCID) shares have been on a volatile ride this week, catching attention from investors keen to evaluate the company's recent performance and future outlook. The stock’s downward trend raises questions about the electric vehicle maker’s next moves.

See our latest analysis for Lucid Group.

It has been a turbulent year for Lucid Group, with momentum fading as the 1-year total shareholder return now sits at -39.67% and the share price falling by over 57% year-to-date. The latest sharp drop highlights growing caution among investors about both immediate challenges and Lucid's longer-term growth potential.

If you're keeping an eye on the electric vehicle sector, this could be the ideal moment to discover See the full list for free.

With Lucid Group’s share price now trading at a significant discount to analyst targets, the central question is clear: does this represent an undervalued EV opportunity, or has the market already adjusted for the company’s future prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 43.6% Undervalued

Lucid Group's latest narrative calculation points to a fair value significantly higher than its most recent close, amplifying interest in where fundamentals can take the stock next.

The newly announced Uber and Nuro partnership, including a planned $300 million Uber investment and a commitment to deploy at least 20,000 Lucid Gravity vehicles as robotaxis over six years, is expected to open a large and fast-growing autonomous fleet market to Lucid. This could drive significant revenue expansion and potential margin improvement via technology licensing and high-volume fleet sales.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold assumptions drive this impressive valuation gap? The most followed narrative weaves together disruptive tech, massive market expansion, and a rapid growth forecast. Wondering what revenue, margin, and future profit metrics the bulls are betting on? You need to see the numbers behind the story.

Result: Fair Value of $22.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent negative margins and reliance on new capital could delay profitability. This may challenge even the most optimistic outlooks for Lucid’s future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Lucid Group narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

While the fair value estimate suggests Lucid Group is undervalued, its current price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.9x, which is much higher than both the US Auto industry average of 0.8x and the peer average of 1.6x. The fair ratio the market could move toward is just 0.1x. This wide gap points to elevated valuation risk. Could the premium pricing be justified, or is a correction ahead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Lucid Group Narrative

If the numbers or outlooks above don’t match your perspective, you can dig into the full data set and craft your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Lucid Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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