A Look at Lucid (LCID) Valuation Following Major Robotaxi Partnership and New SUV Launch Plans

Lucid Group (LCID) is making strategic moves to boost its presence in the electric vehicle space. The company announced a partnership with Uber and Nuro to launch at least 20,000 autonomous robotaxis across the U.S. over the next six years.

See our latest analysis for Lucid Group.

Lucid’s latest moves build on a series of steps to regain momentum after a tough stretch marked by supply chain snags and rising competition. While recent expansions, including new studios in California, have broadened Lucid’s footprint, the 1-year total shareholder return stands at -26.7%, and the share price has slipped 39% year-to-date. The sustained decline reflects ongoing skepticism about near-term profitability, but these new partnerships and upcoming product launches could shift investor sentiment if execution improves.

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Given Lucid’s steep stock decline and ambitious new partnerships, is the market overlooking a turnaround opportunity? Or have future growth expectations already been fully absorbed into today’s share price?

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Undervalued

Lucid Group’s most widely followed narrative sets an estimated fair value noticeably above the last close price, fueled by expectations for robust market expansion and advanced technology adoption. This perspective hinges on big bets in autonomy and the scaling up of new vehicle platforms.

The newly announced Uber and Nuro partnership, including a planned $300 million Uber investment and a commitment to deploy at least 20,000 Lucid Gravity vehicles as robotaxis over six years, is expected to open a large and fast-growing autonomous fleet market to Lucid, driving significant revenue expansion and potential margin improvement via technology licensing and high-volume fleet sales.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the underlying drivers behind this ambitious price target? The recipe blends aggressive top-line growth with a dramatic reset in margins and a premium valuation multiple. Find out what assumptions could justify such a leap. These projections are anything but ordinary.

Result: Fair Value of $23.79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent negative margins and exposure to external funding pressures could quickly undermine these bullish expectations if not effectively addressed.

Find out about the key risks to this Lucid Group narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Tell Us

While the consensus analyst narrative focuses on future earnings prospects, the market’s current approach uses the price-to-sales ratio to value Lucid. At 6.1x, Lucid trades much higher than both its US industry average of 1.3x and peer average of 1.6x, which is far above the fair ratio of just 0.1x. This wide gulf suggests that investors are already paying a substantial premium for potential growth, raising concerns about valuation risk if expectations falter. Is the story already priced in, or is there still upside left?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Lucid Group Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, it takes just a few minutes to craft your own story. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lucid Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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