Taiwan High Speed Rail Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2633 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2633 (NT$28.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NT$49.57)

Is 2633 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2633 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2633 (NT$28.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NT$49.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2633 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2633?

Key metric: As 2633 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2633. This is calculated by dividing 2633's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2633's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20.4x
Earnings	NT$7.93b
Market Cap	NT$161.53b

2633 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.9x
PEG Ratio	7.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2633's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2633 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.7x
2610 China Airlines	14x	-10.1%	NT$144.3b
2618 EVA Airways	8.4x	-28.5%	NT$224.9b
2607 Evergreen International Storage & Transport	13.9x	n/a	NT$32.9b
2646 STARLUX Airlines	118.5x	n/a	NT$85.1b
2633 Taiwan High Speed Rail	20.4x	2.7%	NT$161.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2633 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the peer average (11.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2633's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Infrastructure Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2633 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the Asian Infrastructure industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2633's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2633 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.4x
Fair PE Ratio	14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2633 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.