China Airlines, Ltd.

TWSE:2610 Stock Report

Market Cap: NT$146.4b

China Airlines Valuation

Is 2610 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2610 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2610 (NT$24.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NT$858.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2610 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2610?

Key metric: As 2610 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2610. This is calculated by dividing 2610's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2610's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.2x
EarningsNT$10.29b
Market CapNT$146.40b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2610's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2610 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
2618 EVA Airways
8.3x-28.5%NT$222.2b
2646 STARLUX Airlines
60.9xn/aNT$83.5b
6757 Tigerair Taiwan
10.9xn/aNT$32.4b
2633 Taiwan High Speed Rail
20.3x2.7%NT$161.0b
2610 China Airlines
14.2x-6.6%NT$146.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2610 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2610's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2610 14.2xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies5PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2610 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2610's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2610 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ratio11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2610 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2610 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNT$24.15
NT$23.43
-3.0%
10.3%NT$26.00NT$19.00n/a6
Nov ’25NT$22.50
NT$23.22
+3.2%
11.3%NT$26.00NT$19.00n/a6
Oct ’25NT$21.90
NT$23.15
+5.7%
11.0%NT$25.60NT$19.00n/a6
Sep ’25NT$20.60
NT$23.42
+13.7%
12.2%NT$27.20NT$19.00n/a6
Aug ’25NT$22.75
NT$23.14
+1.7%
11.8%NT$27.20NT$19.00n/a7
Jul ’25NT$24.30
NT$22.44
-7.6%
11.8%NT$27.20NT$19.00n/a6
Jun ’25NT$22.40
NT$19.03
-15.0%
14.4%NT$22.65NT$16.00n/a5
May ’25NT$20.95
NT$18.30
-12.6%
14.3%NT$21.50NT$14.60n/a5
Apr ’25NT$19.50
NT$18.50
-5.1%
14.6%NT$21.50NT$14.60n/a5
Mar ’25NT$19.80
NT$20.12
+1.6%
19.8%NT$26.60NT$14.60n/a6
Feb ’25NT$20.55
NT$20.12
-2.1%
19.8%NT$26.60NT$14.60n/a6
Jan ’25NT$21.65
NT$19.84
-8.4%
21.7%NT$26.60NT$14.60n/a5
Dec ’24NT$21.15
NT$19.84
-6.2%
21.7%NT$26.60NT$14.60n/a5
Nov ’24NT$20.00
NT$20.90
+4.5%
19.9%NT$26.60NT$15.00NT$22.504
Oct ’24NT$21.20
NT$21.05
-0.7%
18.8%NT$26.60NT$15.60NT$21.904
Sep ’24NT$22.95
NT$20.55
-10.5%
20.3%NT$26.60NT$15.60NT$20.604
Aug ’24NT$25.40
NT$18.90
-25.6%
25.6%NT$26.60NT$13.20NT$22.754
Jul ’24NT$26.20
NT$18.63
-28.9%
23.7%NT$25.50NT$13.20NT$24.304
Jun ’24NT$23.15
NT$16.35
-29.4%
14.0%NT$19.00NT$13.20NT$22.404
May ’24NT$19.00
NT$16.37
-13.9%
12.9%NT$19.00NT$13.00NT$20.956
Apr ’24NT$19.50
NT$16.95
-13.1%
12.9%NT$19.00NT$13.00NT$19.506
Mar ’24NT$20.10
NT$17.28
-14.0%
14.3%NT$20.00NT$13.00NT$19.806
Feb ’24NT$19.75
NT$16.72
-15.4%
14.7%NT$20.00NT$13.00NT$20.556
Jan ’24NT$19.00
NT$16.72
-12.0%
14.7%NT$20.00NT$13.00NT$21.656
Dec ’23NT$18.00
NT$16.72
-7.1%
14.7%NT$20.00NT$13.00NT$21.156
Nov ’23NT$17.00
NT$20.97
+23.3%
37.9%NT$35.00NT$14.00NT$20.006

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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