SynPower Co., Ltd.'s (TWSE:6658) 33% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

SynPower Co., Ltd. (TWSE:6658) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 33% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 54% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, SynPower may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 74x, since almost half of all companies in Taiwan have P/E ratios under 21x and even P/E's lower than 15x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that SynPower's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for SynPower

Although there are no analyst estimates available for SynPower, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For SynPower?

SynPower's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 57%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 37% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that SynPower is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in SynPower have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of SynPower revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for SynPower (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than SynPower. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.