Kinko Optical Co., Ltd.'s (TWSE:6209) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

It's not a stretch to say that Kinko Optical Co., Ltd.'s (TWSE:6209) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Electronic industry in Taiwan, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Kinko Optical

How Has Kinko Optical Performed Recently?

For instance, Kinko Optical's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Kinko Optical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Kinko Optical's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 23% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 19% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Kinko Optical is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Kinko Optical's P/S

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Kinko Optical trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Kinko Optical, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.