Improved Revenues Required Before ALi Corporation (TWSE:3041) Stock's 26% Jump Looks Justified

ALi Corporation (TWSE:3041) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 38% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, ALi may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.4x, since almost half of all companies in the Semiconductor industry in Taiwan have P/S ratios greater than 3.5x and even P/S higher than 7x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Check out our latest analysis for ALi

What Does ALi's Recent Performance Look Like?

It looks like revenue growth has deserted ALi recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to worsen, which has repressed the P/S. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on ALi's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like ALi's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 34% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 19,241% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we understand why ALi's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Key Takeaway

Despite ALi's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of ALi revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for ALi that we have uncovered.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.