If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop up? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. On that note, looking into Bionime (TPE:4737), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Bionime, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.017 = NT$56m ÷ (NT$4.5b - NT$1.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).
Thus, Bionime has an ROCE of 1.7%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Medical Equipment industry average of 12%.
See our latest analysis for Bionime
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you're interested in investigating Bionime's past further, check out this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Can We Tell From Bionime's ROCE Trend?
In terms of Bionime's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 6.0%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Bionime to turn into a multi-bagger.
The Bottom Line
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. However the stock has delivered a 62% return to shareholders over the last five years, so investors might be expecting the trends to turn around. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
On a final note, we found 5 warning signs for Bionime (2 make us uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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About TWSE:4737
Bionime
Designs, manufactures, and sells medical instruments in China, Switzerland, the United States, Algeria, Egypt, and internationally.
Low and slightly overvalued.