What Vibrant Group Limited's (SGX:BIP) 38% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Vibrant Group Limited (SGX:BIP) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 38% gain in the last month alone. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 7.1% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Vibrant Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Singapore's Logistics industry is similar at about 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Vibrant Group

What Does Vibrant Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For instance, Vibrant Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Vibrant Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Vibrant Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 29% decrease to the company's top line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with revenue growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Vibrant Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Vibrant Group's P/S is back within range of the industry median. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Vibrant Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Vibrant Group (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.