Vibrant Group Limited's (SGX:BIP) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Vibrant Group Limited (SGX:BIP) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 54%.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Vibrant Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Singapore's Logistics industry is similar at about 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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View our latest analysis for Vibrant Group

How Vibrant Group Has Been Performing

The revenue growth achieved at Vibrant Group over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Vibrant Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Vibrant Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 7.9% gain to the company's revenues. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 26% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 9.2% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Vibrant Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Vibrant Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at Vibrant Group revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vibrant Group, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.