A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of NetLink NBN Trust (SGX:CJLU)

Key Insights

• NetLink NBN Trust's estimated fair value is S$1.0 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of S$0.9 suggests NetLink NBN Trust is trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for CJLU is S$0.93 which is 9.2% below our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NetLink NBN Trust (SGX:CJLU) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for NetLink NBN Trust

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions)	S$212.8m	S$194.7m	S$199.3m	S$196.8m	S$196.2m	S$196.9m	S$198.4m	S$200.6m	S$203.3m	S$206.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ -1.24%	Est @ -0.31%	Est @ 0.34%	Est @ 0.80%	Est @ 1.11%	Est @ 1.34%	Est @ 1.49%
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3%	S$200	S$172	S$166	S$154	S$144	S$136	S$129	S$123	S$117	S$112

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$1.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$206m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.3%– 1.9%) = S$4.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= S$4.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)¹⁰= S$2.6b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is S$4.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.9, the company appears about fair value at a 16% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at NetLink NBN Trust as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for NetLink NBN Trust

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For NetLink NBN Trust, we've compiled three important factors you should further research:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for NetLink NBN Trust that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does CJLU's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.