UOL Group Limited (SGX:U14), which is in the real estate business, and is based in Singapore, saw significant share price volatility over the past couple of months on the SGX, rising to the highs of SGD7.21 and falling to the lows of SGD6. This high level of volatility gives investors the opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at an artificially low price. A question to answer is whether UOL Group’s current trading price of SGD6.24 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at UOL Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What is UOL Group worth?According to my relative valuation model, the stock seems to be currently fairly priced. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that UOL Group’s ratio of 5.75x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 9.39x, which means if you buy UOL Group today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that UOL Group should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because UOL Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
Can we expect growth from UOL Group?Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for UOL Group, at least in the near future.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? U14 seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on U14, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on U14 for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on U14 should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on UOL Group. You can find everything you need to know about UOL Group in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in UOL Group, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.