What’s the value?
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow estimate
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) | SGD-5.60 | SGD53.20 | SGD56.60 | SGD61.89 | SGD67.67 |
| Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Extrapolated @ (9.34%) | Extrapolated @ (9.34%) |
| Present Value Discounted @ 10.85% | SGD-5.05 | SGD43.29 | SGD41.55 | SGD40.98 | SGD40.42 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= SGD161.20
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.6%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = SGD67.67 × (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (10.9% – 2.6%) = SGD836.83
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = SGD836.83 / ( 1 + 10.9%)5 = SGD499.91
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is SGD661.11. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of SGD0.79. Relative to the current share price of SGD0.46, the stock is quite good value at a 41.50% discount to what it is available for right now.
The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Centurion as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.115. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For OU8, I’ve compiled three key aspects you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does OU8 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does OU8’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of OU8? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the SGX every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.