Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Sinarmas Land Limited (SGX:A26) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Sinarmas Land
What Is Sinarmas Land's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2020 Sinarmas Land had S$2.37b of debt, an increase on S$2.05b, over one year. However, it does have S$1.62b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$748.5m.
How Healthy Is Sinarmas Land's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sinarmas Land had liabilities of S$1.51b falling due within a year, and liabilities of S$1.98b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of S$1.62b and S$19.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$1.84b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the S$936.1m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Sinarmas Land would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Sinarmas Land has net debt worth 1.9 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 2.8 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Shareholders should be aware that Sinarmas Land's EBIT was down 32% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Sinarmas Land's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Sinarmas Land produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 76% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
On the face of it, Sinarmas Land's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Sinarmas Land's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Sinarmas Land is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About SGX:A26
Sinarmas Land
An investment holding company, engages in the property business in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
Flawless balance sheet and good value.