Stock Analysis

Earnings growth of 1.7% over 3 years hasn't been enough to translate into positive returns for Avarga (SGX:U09) shareholders

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SGX:U09
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For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Avarga Limited (SGX:U09) shareholders, since the share price is down 35% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 12%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 22% lower in that time. Furthermore, it's down 14% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Avarga isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Avarga

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Avarga actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

Revenue is actually up 9.3% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Avarga more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SGX:U09 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 5th 2023

Take a more thorough look at Avarga's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Avarga's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Avarga's TSR, which was a 31% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Avarga shareholders are down 22% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.3%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. If you would like to research Avarga in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

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