Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Samko Timber Limited (SGX:E6R) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Samko Timber
What Is Samko Timber's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2021 Samko Timber had debt of Rp1.41t, up from Rp1.34t in one year. However, it also had Rp35.0b in cash, and so its net debt is Rp1.38t.
A Look At Samko Timber's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Samko Timber had liabilities of Rp1.78t due within 12 months, and liabilities of Rp571.4b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of Rp35.0b and Rp457.3b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling Rp1.86t more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the Rp588.2b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Samko Timber would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Samko Timber will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
In the last year Samko Timber's revenue was pretty flat, and it made a negative EBIT. While that hardly impresses, its not too bad either.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, Samko Timber had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at Rp4.0b. Combining this information with the significant liabilities we already touched on makes us very hesitant about this stock, to say the least. Of course, it may be able to improve its situation with a bit of luck and good execution. Nevertheless, we would not bet on it given that it lost Rp119b in just last twelve months, and it doesn't have much by way of liquid assets. So we think this stock is quite risky. We'd prefer to pass. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Samko Timber you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About SGX:E6R
Medium-low and slightly overvalued.
