China Shenshan Orchard Holdings Co. Ltd.'s (SGX:BKV) Shares Bounce 70% But Its Business Still Trails The Market

China Shenshan Orchard Holdings Co. Ltd. (SGX:BKV) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 70% gain in the last month alone. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, China Shenshan Orchard Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.7x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Singapore, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 12x and even P/E's above 21x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

For instance, China Shenshan Orchard Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for China Shenshan Orchard Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China Shenshan Orchard Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Any Growth For China Shenshan Orchard Holdings?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as China Shenshan Orchard Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 58%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 8.4% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we can see why China Shenshan Orchard Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift China Shenshan Orchard Holdings' P/E close to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of China Shenshan Orchard Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends are contributing to its low P/E, given they look worse than current market expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for China Shenshan Orchard Holdings (2 are significant) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than China Shenshan Orchard Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.