Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that AnAn International Limited (SGX:Y35) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for AnAn International
How Much Debt Does AnAn International Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 AnAn International had US$78.6m of debt, an increase on US$58.6m, over one year. However, it also had US$10.1m in cash, and so its net debt is US$68.4m.
How Healthy Is AnAn International's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that AnAn International had liabilities of US$284.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$32.8m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$10.1m in cash and US$195.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$111.7m.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$88.8m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
AnAn International has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.3 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Notably, AnAn International's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 106% on last year. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since AnAn International will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last two years, AnAn International saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Mulling over AnAn International's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that AnAn International's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for AnAn International (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About SGX:Y35
AnAn International
An investment holding company, trades in petrochemical, fuel oil, and petroleum products in Singapore, the People’s Republic of China, Europe, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet and good value.