Olam Group Limited's (SGX:VC2) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

When close to half the companies in Singapore have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 11x, you may consider Olam Group Limited (SGX:VC2) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 18.6x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Earnings have risen firmly for Olam Group recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Olam Group

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Olam Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Olam Group would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 21% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 24% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.2% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Olam Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Olam Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Olam Group you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.