NCAB Group AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 33%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, NCAB Group AB (publ) (STO:NCAB) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.27, some 33% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr898m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for NCAB Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NCAB Group from four analysts is for revenues of kr4.34b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 48% to kr2.22. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr4.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.24 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr78.75, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NCAB Group at kr82.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr74.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting NCAB Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NCAB Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while NCAB Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple NCAB Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for NCAB Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.