Earnings Miss: NCAB Group AB (publ) Missed EPS By 6.7% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

NCAB Group AB (publ) (STO:NCAB) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. NCAB Group missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of kr3.6b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.36, falling short by 2.1% and 6.7% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from NCAB Group's five analysts is for revenues of kr3.93b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 28% to kr1.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr4.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.80 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for NCAB Group

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr65.80 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic NCAB Group analyst has a price target of kr69.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr60.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting NCAB Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NCAB Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like NCAB Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NCAB Group. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for NCAB Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for NCAB Group that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.