A Look At The Fair Value Of JLT Mobile Computers AB (publ) (STO:JLT)

Does the April share price for JLT Mobile Computers AB (publ) (STO:JLT) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for JLT Mobile Computers

The calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF (SEK, Millions) kr12.0 kr11.0 kr12.0 kr10.9 kr10.3 kr9.9 kr9.6 kr9.4 kr9.3 kr9.2
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -8.83% Est @ -6.05% Est @ -4.11% Est @ -2.74% Est @ -1.79% Est @ -1.12% Est @ -0.66%
Present Value (SEK, Millions) Discounted @ 6.57% kr11.3 kr9.7 kr9.9 kr8.5 kr7.5 kr6.7 kr6.1 kr5.7 kr5.2 kr4.9

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= SEK75.48m

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (0.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 6.6%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr9.2m × (1 + 0.4%) ÷ (6.6% – 0.4%) = kr151m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = SEKkr151m ÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10 = SEK80.05m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is SEK155.53m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of SEK5.57. Relative to the current share price of SEK5.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

OM:JLT Intrinsic value, April 20th 2019
OM:JLT Intrinsic value, April 20th 2019

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at JLT Mobile Computers as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.03. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For JLT Mobile Computers, I’ve put together three further factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does JLT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does JLT’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of JLT? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the STO every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.