Truecaller AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Truecaller AB (publ) (STO:TRUE B) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Truecaller missed earnings this time around, with kr496m revenue coming in 3.0% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.34 also fell short of expectations by 12%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Truecaller's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr2.10b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.9% to kr1.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr2.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.62 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

View our latest analysis for Truecaller

The consensus price target fell 7.8% to kr79.17, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Truecaller, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr95.00 and the most bearish at kr68.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Truecaller shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Truecaller's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.8% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Truecaller is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Truecaller's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Truecaller going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Truecaller is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.