Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that K-Fast Holding AB (publ) (STO:KFAST B) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for K-Fast Holding
What Is K-Fast Holding's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2022 K-Fast Holding had kr6.66b of debt, an increase on kr4.32b, over one year. On the flip side, it has kr199.4m in cash leading to net debt of about kr6.46b.
How Strong Is K-Fast Holding's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, K-Fast Holding had liabilities of kr1.74b due within 12 months, and liabilities of kr6.46b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had kr199.4m in cash and kr331.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by kr7.66b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of kr7.42b, we think shareholders really should watch K-Fast Holding's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
K-Fast Holding shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (26.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.3 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. The good news is that K-Fast Holding grew its EBIT a smooth 46% over the last twelve months. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if K-Fast Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, K-Fast Holding recorded free cash flow worth 61% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Neither K-Fast Holding's ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that K-Fast Holding is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for K-Fast Holding (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:KFAST B
K-Fast Holding
Operates as a project development, construction, and property company in Sweden.
Reasonable growth potential and slightly overvalued.