Castellum AB (publ) Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Castellum AB (publ) (STO:CAST) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to kr117 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues were kr9.8b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at kr4.79, an impressive 76% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Castellum

Following last week's earnings report, Castellum's eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be kr9.91b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 62% to kr7.73. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr9.98b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr9.55 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr122, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Castellum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr150 and the most bearish at kr102 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Castellum shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Castellum's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Castellum.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Castellum. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Castellum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr122, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Castellum analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Castellum (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.