Castellum AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Castellum AB (publ) (STO:CAST) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr1.74, some 32% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr2.4b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Castellum's seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be kr9.76b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 75% to kr10.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr9.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr10.09 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Castellum

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of kr115, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Castellum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr150 and the most bearish at kr98.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.1% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Castellum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Castellum's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Castellum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Castellum going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Castellum (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.